The United States and most European and Latin American countries have recognized Juan Guaido as the legitimate acting president of Venezuela, following his announcement on January 23 that under the Venezuelan Constitution, as head of the opposition-controlled National Assembly, he is the interim president. His argument: Nicolas Maduro’s election was fraudulent and hence illegitimate, and thus the office is vacant. Massive protests notwithstanding, Maduro defiantly stays in power with the support of the military, calling this a coup d’état orchestrated by the United States, which he accuses of “ambition to take Venezuela’s oil, gas and gold.” He is backed by Russia, China, and Turkey.
What an irony! Venezuela, home to the world’s largest oil reserves, was – I can personally attest – one of Latin America’s most prosperous nations. Now it is facing economic collapse. Critical food shortages, lack of medical care, and rampant poverty have already forced three million people to flee the country. Hyper-inflation is between 170,000 and 1 million percent annually (the inconsistency lies in the lack of data).
The U.S. has imposed economic sanctions on the state-owned oil company PDVSA to prevent oil revenue going to Maduro. It has also warned against trade with Venezuela and has imposed travel bans on several of Maduro’s allies.
The recent events have exacerbated the humanitarian crisis and deepened the political crisis that began under Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chavez. It is hard to predict how this will end, but based on the events since Jan. 23, one could consider the possible scenarios.
The U.S. has sent truckloads of badly needed food supplies, hygiene kits, and nutritional supplements, but these are stockpiled in Cucuta, a Colombian border city. Several other countries and the U.N. are sending aid, as well, but Maduro has blocked aid entering the country, saying that Venezuelans are “not beggars.” The U.N. and several NGOs have urged Maduro to permit the shipments. Rival concerts are planned at the border, fueling tensions.
The opposition’s protests have resulted in more than 40 dead, dozens wounded, and hundreds, including children, arrested. The European Parliament has recognized Guaido as de facto head of state until “new free, transparent and credible presidential elections” are held. Guaido has offered amnesty to military personnel who have not committed “crimes against humanity,” and to Maduro as well. Guaido has also appointed new boards for PDVSA and U.S. refining subsidiary CITGO. Maduro plans to sell 29 tons of gold from central bank vaults to the United Arab Emirates and other countries, in return for Euros. He has also asked the Bank of England to send back 80 tons of Venezuela’s gold.
The International Contact Group on Venezuela, comprising the European Union and thirteen Latin American and European countries, which met in Uruguay on Feb. 7, backed the holding of a new round of elections in Venezuela and presented a plan to negotiate an end to the dispute. Maduro has rejected the proposal for new elections but is willing to negotiate. Russia and the United Nations have offered to mediate, and a number of countries have also called for dialogue and peaceful talks. Guaido refuses to negotiate, calling Maduro illegitimate and saying new elections are the only solution.
Speaking in Miami, President Donald Trump called Maduro “a Cuban puppet” and told the military if they continued to support Maduro, “You will find no safe harbor, no easy exit and no way out. You’ll lose everything.” He said that all options remain open.
Maduro has to go, but U.S. intervention is not the answer.
At the United Nations, Maduro’s representatives could be replaced by Guaido-appointed delegates through the credentials recognition process, which could result in further isolation of Maduro.
The worst-case scenario is that civil war will break out, which no one wants. The best would be if Latin American countries can prevail with a proposal for a referendum in Venezuela and eventually new elections. For that, there has to be a dialogue and Guaido must be prepared to negotiate.
Professor Ved Nanda is Distinguished University Professor and Director of the Nanda Center for International Law at the University of Denver Sturm College of Law. His column appears on the last Sunday of each month. He welcomes your comments at vnanda@law.du.edu.
To send a letter to the editor about this article, submit online or check out our guidelines for how to submit by email or mail.
