Young residents in new Punggol GRC may shift voting patterns, say experts weighing in on electoral boundary changes

Voting patterns in the new Punggol group representation constituency (GRC) may change due to young residents, a political expert has said.

On Tuesday, the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee announced changes to constituencies which include five new GRCs of Pasir Ris-Changi, Punggol, Jurong East-Bukit Batok, Marine Parade-Braddell Heights and West Coast-Jurong West. 

The new SMCs are Bukit Gombak, Jalan Kayu, Jurong Central, Queenstown, Sembawang West and Tampines Changkat.

Speaking to AsiaOne on Tuesday (March 11) on the key battleground constituencies for the upcoming General Election (GE), independent political observer Dr Felix Tan commented that the new Punggol GRC comprises "a lot of younger voters and newer estates" which may "shift voting patterns around".

On the ground, younger Punggol residents are hopeful that this change would help their voices be better heard.

"I thought that (Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC) was actually quite big, so maybe being just Punggol GRC might be a good thing," 34-year-old Punggol resident Lim told AsiaOne.

"Maybe our MPs may be a bit more focused on our GRC."

Another resident, Lya, said: "Hopefully with the new GRC whoever wins the vote will create better infrastructure."

The 39-year-old added: "Knowing that there are many people living in Pasir Ris and Punggol, the split (into two GRCs) is okay."

Previously, Punggol was under Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC and the People's Action Party won with over 64 per cent of the votes against the Singapore Democratic Alliance and third contender Peoples Voice. 

Dr Tan added that the West Coast-Jurong West GRC and the Marine Parade-Braddell Heights GRC will likely be hotly contested due to developments over the years — President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and former Transport Minister S Iswaran are no longer around to contest, and neither is former Speaker of Parliament Tan Chuan-Jin.

Iswaran was sentenced to 12 months' jail in October last year after pleading guilty to lesser charges of obtaining gifts as a public servant.

Former Speaker of Parliament Tan resigned from his post in July 2023 over his affair with Tampines GRC MP Cheng Li Hui.

'Opposition has to also reconfigure its strategies'

Senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore Gillian Koh also explained that the contested seats may not be the same as before.

She explained that East Coast GRC is now split several ways "with a rationalisation of the former Pasir-Ris-Punggol GRC".

The contested Bukit Batok SMC has now been absorbed into a reconfigured Jurong East-Bukit Batok GRC, Dr Koh said.

The West Coast GRC has now been reconfigured and hived off into Radin Mas SMC and the new West Coast-Jurong West GRC.

"What has not changed however is the opposition-held Sengkang GRC, marginal changes to Aljunied GRC and Hougang SMC, and a marginal seat for the PAP, Bukit Panjang SMC," she stated.

"The implications are that the opposition has to also reconfigure its strategies."

Agreeing that the West Coast-Jurong West GRC will see a tight contest, Eugene Tan, Associate Professor at the Singapore Management University's School of Law, said that all People's Action Party and Workers' Party contests will be "closely fought", even if they are not battleground constituencies.

EBRC changes expected, experts say

Although he felt that there were "no real surprises" that the boundaries have been moved, Dr Tan highlighted the significant changes to constituencies, including how Jurong GRC was divided into three different constituencies.

"The naming of the constituencies better reflect the areas that they have subsumed," he said. "This reflects the existence of a different set of identities that might define some of these areas now being included into a larger GRC."

Dr Koh also felt that the changes were anticipated due to population shifts, ensuring that there would be effective representation of voters and of the ethnic representation in Singapore.

Assoc Prof Tan also commented that while changes are to be expected, the EBRC produced a more substantive report this year compared with previous ones.

"I see this as the EBRC responding to longstanding public feedback that the EBRC could and should elaborate on its recommendations."

When will the GE be called?

Dr Tan estimated that the most likely date would be in late May.

"It is the end of the school term and before the June holidays begin. So, Singaporeans will still be around to participate in the GE," he explained.

"Secondly, it is after May Day celebration, where the Prime Minister might want to take the opportunity to highlight some of his policies for Singaporeans."

Assoc Prof Tan said it could be slightly earlier.

"The release of the report sets the stage for the first window in first half of May for the GE," he said, adding that this would potentially give political parties up to eight weeks to respond to the electoral boundary changes.

Although Dr Koh agreed that the GE would generally take place after April, she considered geopolitics as part of the equation.

"I think however that the Government may wish to… wait to see how the conditions of the global economy and geopolitics pan out as the world responds to the policies of the new US administration under Donald Trump," she said.

Dr Koh added that the end of Trump's first 100 days of his second presidency falls on April 30.

In order to be "agile and adaptive", the Government may plan ahead and take this into account as they "head to the polls", leveraging upon what Singaporeans consider to be matters that affect their vote, such as cost of living, job prospects, and different voices in Parliament, she said.

Additional reporting by Lau Han An

khooyihang@asiaone.com

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